Moon of Alabama Two days ago a mob, supported by the fascists Right Sektor, killed over 30 federalist Ukrainians in Odessa by pushing them from their camp into a building and then setting fire to it. Those who escaped the massacre, not the perpetrators, were rounded up by police. Today pro-federalism people besieged the police headquarter in Odessa until the police released those it had earlier arrested.
In the east some military and National Guard units under government
control were in
sporadic fights with federalists but right now the
government forces seem to be again in retreat. There were attacks on
private bank outlets in the east because the owner of the bank, a well
known oligarch, is suspected of financing the fascist Right Sektor
The U.S. plan for Ukraine seems to be to bait Russia into an
occupation. This would destroy EU-Russia relations, embolden NATO and
help the U.S. to keep the EU as a secondary partner under its control.
There would be lots of economic upsides for the U.S. in such a
situation. Selling more arms and increasing energy market shares are
only the starters.
There are two reasons to believe that this plan will fail:
First: Russia will not take the bait. The people requesting more
local autonomy in Ukraine are perfectly able to take a stand on their
own. Should a few die, like in Odessa, even more will rise up. Except
for the Right Sektor people now included in the National Guard there are
no loyal troops for the Kiev coup government to use against the people.
The huge mistake the coup government made, repeating a U.S. mistake
made in Iraq, was to dissolve the federal riot police Berkut. Those now
unemployed trained fighters, together with experienced former Soviet
soldiers, are the military backbone of the federalists. There is
therefore no need for Russia to openly intervene. The Kiev coup
government is already a dying entity.
Second: Many people in Europe have recognized the nefarious U.S.
scheme and are protesting against their politicians' slavishness in
following the U.S. lead. The political pressure against Russia bashing
is building. Every pro-NATO/anti-Russian report in the media, and there
are lots of them, gets trashed in the comment sections. Some of the
European elite are openly turning against the U.S. induced anti-Russia
propaganda. Even the most staunch transatlantic tabloid in Germany,
Bild, today reports (original here)
that the CIA and FBI with dozens of agents are running the show in
Kiev. The report is based on "German security sources" which lets me
believe that the German government is looking for ways to counter
Washington's moves. The German Foreign Minister Steinmeier just called (in German) for a second Geneva conference to solve the situation.
Without Russian intervention and without German support the U.S.
campaign against Russia is unlikely to reach its secondary target of
isolating Russia. The primary target, Sevastopol harbor in Crimea, was
already lost when Russia reunified with the island.
What is left to do then for Washington is to create more chaos in
Ukraine and to hope that somehow out of total chaos some new chance may
arise to stick it to Russia. For lack of real direction that strategy is
also unlikely to succeed.